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Scientists identify critical flaw in disastrous Antarctic ice scenario: 'The question is how fast'

Scientists involved with the study, as well as other researchers, cautioned that there is still significant uncertainty involved in modeling the scenarios.

Scientists involved with the study, as well as other researchers, cautioned that there is still significant uncertainty involved in modeling the scenarios.

Photo Credit: iStock

Scientists have long been fearful about what mass ice collapse in West Antarctica could mean for the safety of the world's citizens living in coastal communities. 

But, as The New York Times reported, researchers are now feeling a little more hopeful, as a recent study indicated that one disastrous scenario seems less likely to play out. 

What's happening?

Steady melting of West Antarctica's ice sheet — as a result of rising global temperatures caused by pollution — has been a cause for serious concern, with the potential of exposed, unstable ice cliff faces potentially collapsing at an unstoppable rate.

As the Times detailed, the ice melting in the ocean under this scenario was predicted to add more than a foot to sea-level rise by the end of the 21st century, and coastal communities would face the prospect of relocating inland as flooding destroys towns and cities.

However, scientific simulations — published in the Science Advances journal — of two "worst-case scenarios" suggested that the predicted collapse of ice cliffs would not lead to a "runaway breakdown," as the Times put it — perhaps giving us more time to prepare for the effects this would cause.

Scientists involved with the study, as well as other researchers quoted by the Times, cautioned that there is still significant uncertainty involved in modeling the scenarios.

Why is ice sheet melting still concerning?

"We're not saying that we're safe," study leader Mathieu Morlighem, a professor of earth science at Dartmouth College, told the news outlet. "The Antarctic ice sheet is going to disappear; this is going to happen. The question is how fast."

That means we still have to prepare for flooding caused by sea-level rise and the possibility that some previously settled areas will soon become uninhabitable.

While coastal communities can invest in flood defenses and encourage citizens to move inland, this is expensive and time-consuming, so we need to prepare for these eventualities as soon as possible.

What can be done about ice sheet melting?

While, individually, we can't do much to completely stop ice sheet melting, there are ways we can at least help to slow down the rate at which this happens.

It starts with reducing the planet-warming pollution we create in our daily lives. The Environmental Protection Agency's data says that in 2022, 28% of planet-warming gases in the United States were produced by the transportation sector, followed closely behind by electric power production at 25%. 

With that in mind, reconsidering how you travel can help to reduce your pollution. For example, look at public transport options, ride a bike, or walk more. Meanwhile, switching off energy vampires at night can save electricity, as can investing in more efficient kitchen appliances, like an induction stove or a heat pump water heater

Changing how you travel and conserving energy can save you money, too, cutting the need to refill your car with expensive dirty fuel so often and slashing the cost of your energy bills, respectively. 

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