US farmers issue warning as staple holiday ingredient becomes increasingly harder to grow: 'We didn't see this … coming'

A large drop in the fall harvest of a holiday food staple resulted in a price spike as demand exceeded supply.

What's happening?

During December, many people are on the hunt for holiday food staples such as turkey, ham, and pumpkin pie. Many delicious dishes served during this time of year feature one food staple that has several proven health benefits. Walnuts are a cooking necessity for many of us, especially over the holidays — but this year, they are taking a bigger bite out of grocery bills.

California's walnut crop was down nearly a third compared to 2023's harvest, and last year had a record drop of its own. "We finished quickly because statewide, the crop is down 28 to 30% over last year," Carriere Family Farm's Bill Carriere said, per FreshPlaza.com.

"As an industry, we didn't see this sharp drop coming," Carriere said. "At first, we didn't believe production would be down that much. However, a few weeks into harvest, we realized it was going to be even lower than the survey's estimate."

According to California Agricultural Production Statistics, crop volume dropped from 824,000 tons in 2023 to 670,000 tons in 2024. Industry experts think the overheating climate contributed to the drop in production this year. January through November in California was the sixth-warmest on record for the state, which endured multiple heat waves that set record temperatures.

Why is a significant reduction in California's walnut crop important?

A reduction in available walnuts coupled with demand exceeding supply has driven the price of the California-grown nut higher. California's walnuts are considered to be high quality; one of the state's main competitors, China, produces bigger and cheaper nuts.

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California is the country's leading producer of walnuts.

"The economic importance of walnuts in California is crucial in the state's agricultural sector and contributes significantly to the local economy," according to the State Water Resources Control Board's Division of Financial Assistance. "In fact, the state contributes nearly 99% of the country's total walnut production and over 30% of the world's supply."

What's being done about our warming world's impact on food staples such as walnuts?

The overheating planet is part of the reason researchers recently warned that basic food staple prices are projected to skyrocket in the next decade. Pennsylvania's potato crops are one example of the threat our warming world poses to food supplies. The number of nights per year that are too hot for potato crops has risen from 35 to closer to 50.

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Advances in technology offer hope that we can protect at least some staple crops from the harsh impacts of Earth's rising temperature. Scientists have identified chickpeas as a drought-resilient, sustainable crop with the potential to bolster food security amid the shifting climate.

Breakthroughs in research will help, but the ultimate solution involves turning away from dirty energy sources and embracing cleaner alternatives such as solar and wind.