New data reveals worrying trend in key water supply that could impact millions: 'We are quickly running out of time'

The long-term trend for Sierra Nevada snow at lower elevations shows a reduction in snowfall, a crucial part of the water supply in the Western U.S.

What's happening?

California's snowpack fell in late February to 85% of the average for the end of the second month of meteorological winter. By the middle of March, the snow water equivalents in the Sierra Nevada ranged from 96% in the northern part of the mountain range to only 77-80% in the central and southern portions.

The snowpack in the Sierra Nevada is monitored closely because it impacts the region's water supply. Almost a third of California's water supply comes from mountain snow.

"Every day it's not actively snowing or raining, we're likely losing ground, and that's exacerbated with warmer temperatures," Andy Reising, California's Department of Water Resources's manager of snow surveys, told the Los Angeles Times. "While we still have about one month left in the traditional snow accumulation season, we are quickly running out of time to catch up to what would be an average snow year like we had last year."

The observations reveal a troubling trend seen in California. As an overheating planet warms winters, the state is seeing less snow at lower elevations in the Sierra Nevada.

Why is less snow at lower elevations in California important?

A 2023 study published in Climate Dynamics warned that snowlines are moving up California's mountains, which are projected to be 1,600 feet higher by the end of the century. Not only are Sierra Nevada snowlines creeping higher, but most of the country is seeing less snow now compared to the early 1970s.

An analysis of 2,041 U.S. locations by Climate Central revealed nearly two-thirds of them are getting less snow now compared to 1970. 

"The amount of mountain snowpack and the timing of snowmelt largely determine the supply of water to rivers and reservoirs in the western U.S. during the high-demand spring and summer," noted Climate Central's analysis. "But since the mid-20th century, the western U.S. has experienced declining snowpack, earlier snowmelt and streamflow, and a shift toward less precipitation falling as snow." 

A lack of snowfall was the major contributing factor that forced major ski resorts in Canada, France, and Switzerland to close within the past year.

What's being done about the reduction in snow?

Sophisticated computer models can help guide decisions as they reveal the impacts of a warming world. 

"They use simulations called Earth systems models that include many different parts of the climate system that shape the global environment," according to the U.S. Department of Energy. "These models help us predict what the impacts will be for each additional degree of warming." 

"With this knowledge, we can work to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and make adaptations to minimize the impacts that are already happening," added the DOE. "Water is essential to every person and ecosystem on our planet. With scientific research, we can better understand water systems, reduce our effects on them, and help communities be more resilient in the face of these changes."

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