Scientists have long been concerned about the Earth reaching a climate "tipping point," when changes to the planet's natural systems trigger various environmental catastrophes.
Now a study has detailed that the bill for reversing these issues will become much higher if we wait rather than acting on mitigating those risks immediately.
What's happening?
As Earth.com detailed, a study published in the NPJ Climate and Atmospheric Science journal has quantified the economic implications of trying to make positive changes before and after thresholds have been met.
Tipping points, such as the disappearance of polar ice sheets, coral reef collapse, and the critical failure of ecosystems could lead to significant changes to the Earth's processes.
For example, this could result in rapidly warming temperatures, uncontrollable sea-level rise, and an increase in extreme weather events.
The study found that the effort and cost to reverse these planet-altering changes will become significantly higher once these thresholds have been passed.
"You either shoulder the cost now, just before the threshold is crossed, or you wait," said mathematician Parvathi Kooloth, the study's lead author, per Earth.com. "And if you wait, the degree of intervention needed to bring the climate system back to where it was rises steeply. Corrective action after the fact is much more costly and intrusive than preventive action."
Why is passing climate thresholds concerning?
The Earth is already experiencing what a changing climate can lead to, with extreme weather conditions becoming longer, stronger, and more frequent, coastal communities put at risk amid sea-level rise, and the disruption of vital ecosystems.
However, this study outlined that reversing those changes will become much more difficult once we pass these tipping points — although there is a brief window of opportunity where intervention costs increase only slightly.
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Never 👎 "This is no free lunch," Kooloth said about that expected short period. "The extra leeway comes with an even steeper increase in intervention costs once the overshoot window is fully crossed."
What's more, some issues might not be possible to reverse at all. For example, wildlife and ecosystems may never return to their previous state, while recovering polar ice sheets would be a monumentally difficult task.
"The path forward and the path backward are often not the same," Kooloth continued. "Imagine that we go down a high-emissions pathway, where the planet warms enough to melt all our sea ice by the end of the century."
"If we arrive in the year 2100 with no sea ice, it may not be sufficient to bring the ice back if we dialed our emissions down to the levels we're emitting now in 2024, when we still have some ice left."
What can be done to stop the Earth from reaching these tipping points?
"We may need to dial emissions down much further, to levels predating 2024 — that asymmetry is important for us to consider as we choose our path forward," Kooloth said.
Reducing the production of planet-warming pollution is essential so that we don't cross a line we may not be able to return from.
Major changes are in the hands of global governments and big businesses, but that doesn't mean we can't make an impact, too.
For example, Sustainability by Numbers cited data that shows the average driver in the United States can reduce harmful gas pollution by half if they make the switch to an electric vehicle.
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