Chocolate prices have been soaring this year, and the problem is anything but straightforward. A tangled web of cause and effect has led us here, and it's not on track to change course yet.
What's happening?
The problems exist in several key areas, Nature Africa reports: changes in policies, illegal mining and deforestation, and natural events (which, despite the name, have been exacerbated by human activity).
A bad El Niño, with heavy rains and hotter than usual temperatures, led to a proliferation of diseases and pests. Nature Africa reported that this caused "dramatic falls in yields" in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana, which normally grow 60% of the world's cocoa.
Research from the Journal of Rural Studies also found that more cocoa farmers are leasing their land to illegal mining, as miners use what the study labeled "coercive" persuasion tactics. And as miners encroach, they often contribute to massive deforestation around the farms.
As it happens, Europe is also doubling down on enforcing its Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) law, Nature reports. While this policy — requiring all EU cocoa imports to prove their source — is written with good intent, it has farmers worried about how it will impact them.
Nature spoke with Tyala Ifwanga, a forest policy expert, who said: "While the law requires companies to prove the legality and environmental sustainability of the cocoa they are trading, what we are currently seeing is that this burden is put onto smallholders, especially in terms of costs to prepare for the EUDR like mapping of their farms."
With increased costs and facing a diminished income from Europe — currently responsible for 58% of global cocoa imports — consumers can all expect to see even higher prices as suppliers attempt to recoup their losses.
Why is this so concerning?
These issues have officials deeply concerned about the industry's future, as many of the problems are self-reinforcing.
For example, deforestation from illegal mining is causing a biodiversity crisis, and a lack of biodiversity is one of the contributing factors behind the proliferation of disease-carrying pests.
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Human activity leading to warmer global temperatures will also continue to increase the severity of weather events like El Niño.
What's being done?
Governments and corporations are working to reduce the planet-warming air pollution they produce, which casts a broad threat over all economic activity. But the smallholders are also looking for ways to improve productivity and profitability in ways they can directly control.
One such example is in the growing practice of using cocoa pods, rather than discarding them. Another arm of Nature, Nature Food, published a study that found that these pods, which are rich in pectin and nutrients, can be made into a sweetener for use in chocolate production, offsetting losses from lower overall yields.
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