A NASA analysis shows that Pacific Island nations are at great risk from sea level rise over the next three decades.
What's happening?
Tuvalu, Kiribati, Fiji, Nauru, and Niue will be surrounded by an "irreversible" extra 6 inches of water by the early 2050s — no matter how much heat-trapping pollution is slowed down from adding to the existing problem in the atmosphere, according to the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
This high-tide flooding, also called nuisance flooding or sunny day flooding, will impact countries differently based on their coastal topography, the distribution of glacial meltwater, and more.
"Sea level will continue to rise for centuries, causing more frequent flooding," Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer of NASA's Earth Science Division said. "NASA's new flood tool tells you what the potential increase in flooding frequency and severity look like in the next decades for the coastal communities of the Pacific Island nations."
Why is this important?
Parts of Tuvalu could go from five high-tide flood days each year to 25 by the 2050s. Parts of Kiribati could go from five flood days to 65.
"I am living the reality of climate change," Grace Malie of Tuvalu and a youth leader with the Rising Nations Initiative said. "Everyone [in Tuvalu] lives by the coast or along the coastline, so everyone gets heavily affected by this.
"... The future of the young people of Tuvalu is already at stake. Climate change is more than an environmental crisis. It is about justice, survival for nations like Tuvalu, and global responsibility."
The low-lying islands are at risk of disappearing because of the human consumption of dirty energy sources such as coal and gas, the responsibility of which all but totally lies with much larger countries.
Older vehicle and power plant technology belches polluting gases into the atmosphere, trapping heat and melting ice. We can take steps to lower these emissions and slow the warming of the planet and ocean, but some changes — such as perhaps 31 inches of sea level rise over centuries — are now baked in since there is already too much pollution in the atmosphere and much of it can take hundreds and even thousands of years to rebalance.
What's being done about sea level rise?
The study, which was prompted by Pacific Island nations and supported by the U.S. Department of State, can help the governments and citizens of these countries focus their flood mitigation efforts. It will improve Tuvalu's early warning systems, Malie said, and could offer even more detailed information in the future.
Researchers hope to add land-based sea level and elevation information to the satellite data to provide precise projections of sea level rise, which would "[improve] understanding of the impacts to countries in the Pacific."
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