Researchers at the Technical University of Munich developed iLand, a state-of-the-art computer model that can predict how forests will look a century from now, the institution reported via Phys.org.
The iLand model is a digital replica of a forest customized to reflect real-world ecological conditions of particular areas. Also known as a "digital twin," the simulation model of forest landscapes offers a glimpse into the future of forests under different climate scenarios, which could help forest managers make smarter, more environmentally friendly decisions. Applications include mitigating damage from natural disasters and planning reforestation efforts that optimize biodiversity and carbon storage.
Unlike traditional models that analyze only small patches of land, iLand enables scientists to examine entire ecosystems, including 150 tree species across three continents, according to the research, which was published in Ecological Modelling.
As Werner Rammer, a researcher involved in building iLand, put it, "This is not possible with other models."
While forests are crucial for combating the changing climate, they're facing mounting threats from drought, invasive pests such as bark beetles, and increasingly frequent wildfires. In other words, forests are "not particularly well adapted to future climate conditions," Rupert Seidl, professor of ecosystem dynamics at TUM, said.
iLand could help predict how a changing climate impacts forests. The tool simulates long-term developments across vast forest landscapes up to 100,000 hectares each, allowing researchers to see how different tree species, pests, and extreme weather events interact over decades or centuries.
Developed over 12 years, iLand uses cutting-edge software to predict how forests will respond to scenarios including a temperature rise of up to 4.8 degrees Celsius. It can also calculate the impact of reforestation efforts, highlighting which tree species are best suited for future climates and which will absorb the most carbon. This level of precision could be useful in restoring forests after disasters such as wildfires, ensuring regrowth efforts are tailored to local needs in the long run.
The iLand model could be a game-changing tool for a greener future. By helping forests adapt to the changing climate, iLand can increase biodiversity, store carbon, and mitigate the impact of disasters. The tool could also make life better for humans, providing cleaner air, reduced risks of natural disasters, and long-term availability of raw materials such as timber.
The German forest simulation model isn't the only piece of tech promoting forest management. French-Brazilian company Morfo is deploying seed-dropping drones across hard-to-reach areas in Brazil's forests to foster new vegetation growth. As for cities, ecologists created a tool urban planners can use to plant more trees to lower temperatures.
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As for iLand, the model has already been used in over 50 studies worldwide. It remains open to further development, a sign that forests will be better prepared to adapt to the changing climate.
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