Extreme cold and extreme heat are already a major problem for the health of American citizens. According to Science News, extreme temperatures cause roughly 8,000 deaths per year in the U.S. Now, a new study is shining a light on what those numbers might look like in the future — and unfortunately, the picture is bleak.
What's happening?
According to Science News, researchers reporting in JAMA Network Open used two different models to predict the potential change in the death rate. To make each model, researchers input the number of days of extreme temperatures in the U.S. and the resulting deaths, then added the predicted number of days with temperature extremes in the future.
One model was conservative, with only a small increase in heat-trapping air pollution to raise Earth's temperature, while one showed a worst-case scenario with a larger increase. Both were based on previously calculated predictions for the world's future temperature.
In both cases, the death toll rose significantly by 2036 to 2065. In the more conservative model, deaths doubled. In the more severe scenario, deaths tripled.
Why are these results important?
It is extremely likely that the world will keep getting hotter in the future. Deadly heat stress isn't just a possibility; it's a given. It will likely affect the hottest regions of the world most severely, but even in the U.S., there will be health risks.
"As the climate warms, the frequency, duration, and intensity of heat waves is increasing. Understanding how this will impact our health is crucial," said Sameed Khatana, a cardiologist at the University of Pennsylvania, per Science News.
The risk is also distributed unevenly. According to Science News, the people most at risk, according to the model, were seniors, Black adults, Hispanic adults, and adults living in urban areas. Urban neighborhoods are prone to the heat island effect, and those living in poorer neighborhoods are less likely to enjoy factors that bring the temperature down.
"Neighborhoods with more minority residents on average have lower tree cover and air conditioning access, which impacts the temperatures people experience," said Khatana, per Science News.
What can I do about heat-related deaths?
As the world warms up, it's more important than ever to know what to do in the case of extreme heat.
But you can also do your part to reduce heat-trapping pollution and bring down the world's temperature. Switch from gas to electric wherever possible, vote for representatives and policies that benefit the environment, and spread the word to friends and family.
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