Some serious market experts are publishing incredible predictions for near-future electric vehicle battery prices. The forecasts include a 50% price reduction, creating replacement costs that are at parity with fixing internal combustion engines.
The reports from Recurrent, Goldman Sachs, and others highlight how improving chemistry and other innovations are tackling EV buyers' main fears: fire risk, range anxiety, and great expense.
By 2030, pack replacements could cost between $3,000 and $5,000. That's about the same or less than the cost of an engine replacement, according to Recurrent's reporting.
"And, unlike gas cars whose hundreds of moving parts often cause mechanical problems as they age, EVs have far fewer moving parts to wear down," publication researcher Liz Najman wrote.
The report cites multiple sources in support, including one from Goldman estimating that battery prices will drop by half as early as 2026. For reference, CNET reported that a new battery can cost between $10,000 and $20,000 at current pricing.
The reasons for the bargain battery market are similar across the reports: cheaper parts development, better performance, and increased recycling. An assortment of battery chemistries, including sodium, LFP, and even potassium, are being developed as less expensive alternatives to lithium. The costly, reliable metal is subject to foreign supply chains. But even lithium-ion prices are expected to plummet, per the reports.
"This is great news for EV affordability, as well as many other energy and technology projects that rely on lithium-ion batteries," Najman wrote for Recurrent.
Speculators watching the EV/battery market don't have an easy task, as political energy is being added to the mix.
Reuters reported that President-elect Donald Trump might nix tax breaks and other programs geared to grow EV use and charger station development. Part of the policy could involve redirecting funding to grow domestic battery manufacturing and supply chains, a potential boon to reducing the reliance on foreign materials. But an easing of dirty exhaust regulations for fossil burners has also been floated, per Reuters and E&E News.
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In the end, the Goldman and Recurrent reports could be evidence that the EV/battery sector's momentum is strong enough to overcome periodic policy changes.
As it stands, Cox Automotive reported that 346,309 EVs were sold stateside in the third quarter of the year. That's an 11% year-over-year Q3 growth.
The pace doesn't match China, where EV/hybrid sales hit 50% in July. In the U.S., EV sales are "not yet growing fast enough to meet climate goals," per the Associated Press.
Switching to an EV is one of the best ways to help reduce heat-trapping air pollution production — a must to avoid worst-case environmental and health risks associated with our warming world, climate experts have warned.
That's because EVs prevent thousands of pounds of air pollution a year compared to gas-guzzlers, according to U.S. government data. Cutting fuel use and maintenance costs can also save you up to $1,500 a year. It's a recurring perk realized throughout the EV's growing lifespan.
And Recurrent reported that lithium-ion packs are expected to last 200,000 miles or longer. The popular Tesla Model Y already has an eight-year/120,000-mile warranty on the battery and drive unit, for example.
The longer lifespans and cheaper packs can boost the used market, as well, which will help increase American EV sales.
"The takeaway? It will no longer be the case that a 10-plus-year-old EV is worthless. It will be very feasible for someone to buy an inexpensive EV and replace the battery pack for a few thousand dollars," Najman wrote.
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