Scientists across the world have come together to create an early warning system for diarrheal outbreaks caused by natural disasters like flooding and prolonged drought.
According to a press release from the University of Maryland, the team trained AI-based models that can predict area-level disease burdens weeks to months ahead of an outbreak. Their research is published in Environmental Research Letters.
The study's senior author, Amir Sapkota of UM's School of Public Health, said the advanced warning system "provides public health practitioners crucial time to prepare" so they can be "better prepared to respond when the time comes."
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Diarrheal disease is the third leading cause of death among young children in less developed countries, according to the release. And natural disasters like floods and drought can lead to outbreaks. For instance, one study from the Yale School of Public Health found a link between severe flooding and increased diarrhea risk in children.
The risk of such events continues to increase as our planet warms. In fact, NASA reported the proportion of people across the world living in flood-prone areas has risen by 20-24% since 2000 as rising global temperatures drive extreme rainfall, rising seas, and more intense hurricanes.
The new predictive AI is just one innovative solution that can help us deal with the impacts of worsening weather. For instance, "smart reefs" are being used to help communities respond quickly to extreme weather, while smart sensors can catch forest fires before they even start.
While helping combat diarrheal outbreaks is a good start, "future studies are needed to perform prospective evaluations of such early warning systems in real-world settings," according to the study's abstract.
"Increases in extreme weather events related to climate change will only continue in the foreseeable future," Sapkota said in the university press release. "We must adapt as a society. The early warning systems outlined in this research are a step in that direction to enhance community resilience to the health threats posed by climate change."
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