Risks of a troubling tropical disease with a terrifying nickname are increasing in Europe, and a study is helping to identify areas that should be on alert.
What's happening?
As the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology explained in a report shared by Phys.org, the Asian tiger mosquito is bringing a "growing threat" of disease to Europe, with dengue fever a particular concern.
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Dengue is often referred to as a "bone breaker" disease because of the severe muscle and joint pain it can cause. In extreme cases, the vector-borne illness can result in internal bleeding and death.
The increased geographical spread of mosquito species and a greater window of time in which they can thrive has been attributed to a number of factors, including the global movement of people, worldwide trade routes, and a warming climate.
Why is the spread of mosquito-spread diseases concerning?
Around half of the world's population is said to now be at risk of dengue, according to the UKCEH.
Mosquitoes can thrive in temperatures of around 80 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the Central Mass Mosquito Control Project. Global heating is thus expanding the areas where mosquitoes can survive, allowing them to breed in locations that were previously unlikely.
"We predict that the parts of Europe most affected by dengue fever will continue to be southern France and northern Italy, due to a favorable climate, a stable mosquito population and the high number of travelers returning from tropical countries where the disease is prevalent," study lead and epidemiological modeler Dr. Dominic Brass said, per UKCEH.
"However, areas of risk are expanding northwards. Our ongoing research is modeling the likely extent of future outbreaks in Europe under future climate change."
According to the Mayo Clinic, no specific treatment for dengue exists, putting people at increased risk should they contract it. It can't be spread directly between people, but mosquitoes can bite infected people and then spread the disease to others who they go on to bite.
In addition to the risk of death and serious illness dengue brings, the possibility that exponentially rising cases can overwhelm medical services is a serious concern.
What can be done about dengue fever?
The UKCEH's modeling has predicted areas in Europe that could be most impacted by rising dengue cases, allowing for mitigation and preparation.
Correct predictions have already been made for dengue outbreaks in La Colle-sur-Loup, Baho, and Montpellier-Pérols in southern France and Vila-seca in northeast Spain.
"Our novel modeling technique shows remarkable accuracy for identifying the seasonal patterns and mechanisms of the risk of dengue fever outbreaks, providing a valuable tool for authorities drawing up action plans to prevent and control the spread of the disease," senior study author Dr. Steven White said.
Aside from this scientific assistance, we can also do our part to reduce the threat of dengue. That begins with doing what we can to reduce the production of pollution, which makes conditions better for mosquito survival.
Eating more plant-based meals, being mindful of our energy consumption, and engaging in community action to slow the release of planet-warming gases are among some of the actions you can perform to help.
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