A new study found that heat-related deaths in Europe could triple by the end of the century because of climate change, as the Guardian detailed. But what may be as concerning is that cold weather-related deaths could also rise under lesser warming scenarios — and, with higher levels of temperature increase, the added heat-related deaths could greatly outpace any possible drops in cold-related deaths.
What's happening?
Currently, cold weather-related deaths outnumber heat-related deaths in Europe. As the Guardian pointed out, some may think warming temperatures could help lower the cold weather death rate. But recent research modeling published in The Lancet suggests the story will likely be more complex — and more locally varied.
The study projected mortality rates throughout Europe for four levels of global warming: 1.5 degrees Celsius, 2 C, 3 C, and 4 C (about 2.7, 3.6, 5.4, and 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit).
Notably, a global average increase of 1.5 C from pre-industrial levels is widely considered to be the threshold "to avert the worst impacts of climate change," as the United Nations has summarized. For 2023, global temperatures were about 1.36 C (2.45 F) warmer than pre-industrial times, according to NASA.
The new study's researchers projected that at 1.5 degrees and 2 degrees of warming, cold weather-related deaths in Europe could be higher than current levels.
As the Guardian summarized, "the study … found that the death toll would respond slowly to warming weather and may even rise through people growing older and more vulnerable to dangerous temperatures."
At 3 and 4 degrees of warming, the study's cold weather-related death projections drop significantly. But the heat-related death rate rises so much from current levels that more people would die overall from severe weather — both cold and hot.
The study found that heat-related European deaths could triple by 2100. Today, heat-related deaths in Europe stand at about 44,000 annually. But if global temperatures increase by 3 degrees by the end of the century, there are estimated to be about 129,000 deaths per year in the region. Even if world leaders hit their goal of keeping global warming levels at 1.5 degrees, heat-related mortality is likely to rise to more than 58,000 deaths per year.
The study also suggested that local variation and demographic shifts will likely be significant: "Other factors, such as the evolution of socioeconomic developments or other secondary consequences of climate change on demography — such as the effects of net migration — could influence total temperature-related deaths."
Why is this new research important?
Not only does climate change have a toll on our planet, but it has a death toll. The World Health Organization says heat stress is the top cause of weather-related deaths, with heat exacerbating health issues such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, miscarriages, and even mental health. Excessive cold weather can lead to hypothermia and frostbite, according to the National Weather Service.
"This research is a stark reminder of the number of lives that we are putting at risk if we fail to act quickly enough against climate change," Madeleine Thomson, head of climate impacts and adaptation at the health research charity Wellcome, told the Guardian.Â
Thomson also told the Guardian that direct heat deaths are "not even the full picture," adding that extreme heat is linked to indirect impacts including "crop failure, wildfire devastation, damage critical infrastructure and … the economy."
The new research also highlights how rising global temperatures impact aging populations. With improved global health care, a higher percentage of the population is living to an age where they are especially vulnerable to weather-related health impacts. With that in mind, the researchers say aging communities would likely be most impacted by these temperature shifts.
Along with aging populations, the researchers say special attention should be paid to communities with high unemployment, poverty, and emigration rates, all of which makes it harder to adapt to the impacts of climate change.
What's being done about weather-related mortality?
The researchers want this new data to help "formulate effective public health responses and adaptation strategies," mitigating temperature-related mortality. This can include implementing early warning systems for extreme weather, promoting community initiatives to educate and assist those at risk, and ensuring healthcare infrastructure is ready for an increase in weather-related medical cases.
Countries are already acutely aware of the need to limit global temperatures to 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels. Almost a decade ago, the Paris Agreement was passed by the U.N., setting long-term guidelines to help limit global temperatures to that particular threshold.
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