A group of researchers led by Constance Chua, a researcher at Tohoku University's International Research Institute of Disaster Science, are developing a model to predict the impact of tsunamis on the global port network amid increasingly extreme weather events.
What's happening?
"Port disruptions are costly — very costly," as a Tohoku University report shared by Phys.org explained. People in that area are very familiar with the situation since a 2011 tsunami inflicted about $12 billion in damages to port facilities and vessels. Resulting disruptions to seaborne trade cost around $3.4 billion per day.
In economic regions, such as the European Union, shipping accounts for 80% of all imports and exports by volume. The International Chamber of Shipping indicated that, as of 2019, the total value of global trade reached more than $14 trillion, making it central to the world's economy.
Why is this study so important?
Tsunamis are a series of waves caused by the displacement of large portions of the ocean, often due to earthquakes. They can radiate outward in all directions, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration noting that about two each year cause damage near their source. Those that impact areas more than 620 miles from the source happen about twice a decade.
Since tsunamis are relatively infrequent, as natural hazards go, their impact on shipping ports and trade hasn't been properly evaluated. Chua and her research associates are working to model the future impacts of tsunamis, with adjustments for rising sea levels, so that planning and preparation can help offset potential damages.
"We applied our framework to the South China Sea, focusing on a potential tsunami scenario triggered by a rupture along the Manila Trench," said Chua, per the report. "We also incorporated tsunami conditions under future sea level rises."
What's being done about this situation?
Projects such as this one can help persuade those in the global network to build more robust port facilities in the face of a changing climate. This is especially important for high-traffic areas.
"Since South China hosts some of the busiest ports and sea lanes, the number of disrupted shipping routes would far exceed previous tsunami events," Chua explained.
"Given the lack of consideration given to tsunami impacts, our study could help stakeholders prepare for such events."
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While preparation for flooding and other natural disasters is essential, it's also important to understand our role in rising temperatures and subsequently higher sea levels. The latter hit a record high of 4 inches above 1993 levels as of last year.
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