New study reveals how food prices will likely change in the next 30 years: 'We went all the way to the grocery store'

Recent research is forecasting how much money farmers will make from the sale of their produce, and it's not as much as you might think. 

What's happening?

Researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research recently published a paper in the journal Nature Food detailing how little income farmers currently receive for their crops compared to what consumers pay for final food products. They also went on to suggest upcoming trends and the factors at play.

"In high-income countries like the U.S. or Germany, farmers receive less than a quarter of food spending, compared to over 70 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa, where farming costs make up a larger portion of food prices," said lead author David Meng-Chuen Chen, according to ScienceDaily. "This gap underscores how differently food systems function across regions. … Most models stop at farm costs, but we went all the way to the grocery store and even the restaurant or canteen."

Processing, retail, marketing, and transport are taking an increasing portion of revenue, according to the research. The paper suggests that these longer supply chains give consumers in industrialized countries a buffer against climate costs accrued by farmers, such as land use restrictions and pollution taxes.

According to the researchers, consumers in rich countries could face food prices 1.25 times higher with aggressive climate policies by 2050, while their producers would face costs 2.73 times higher.

Lower-income countries would be affected much more harshly. They would see consumer food prices rise 2.45 times, and producer prices would go up by 3.3 times under the same conditions. Researchers say these costs pale in comparison to those caused by unmitigated changes to the climate. 

Why are food costs important?

The increasing incidence and severity of extreme weather events are making agriculture harder and harder to engage in. Unsustainable agricultural practices are only speeding up that problem. When farmers have difficulty keeping a roof over their heads, it's unlikely that they'll be able to make investments needed to lower the environmental costs of their work.

The silver lining here is that some consumers won't be bearing the brunt of monetary climate costs in their grocery bill, but that does little for farmers and consumers in low-income countries paying a higher share.

Remember that every grocery store trip is an opportunity to vote with your wallet. Take a look at the TCD Guide's page on how to shop smarter for food for some tips to do your part and a discussion section to share ideas and talk with other readers. 

What is usually the dirtiest room in your home? Bathroom Kitchen Bedroom Something else Click your choice to see results and speak your mind.

What's being done about food costs?

Some farmers have embraced new, sustainable practices, even with the added costs involved. While slow-moving, there is progress in providing low-income countries with financial support as they bear the brunt of climate challenges to agriculture.

Join our free newsletter for good news and useful tips, and don't miss this cool list of easy ways to help yourself while helping the planet.