At a recent meeting in Washington, scientists raised concerns about a troubling shift in climate patterns: the growing unpredictability of extreme weather events, per Bloomberg.
This unpredictability makes forecasting more difficult and leaves communities less prepared for extreme conditions. As key climate systems behave in unexpected ways, researchers are struggling to adjust their models accordingly. Bloomberg reports they need to "rethink" everything, as "predictability has become more challenging."
What's happening?
One key topic was the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a climate pattern that influences how mild or cold the winters are in North America and Europe. However, Princeton researcher Ivan Mitevski explained that rising carbon dioxide levels are pushing the NAO into a phase that leads to mild temperatures rather than cold ones.
Flood modeling is another area facing challenges. In fact, Fathom chief scientist Oliver Wing criticized and questioned the validity of some widely used models, suggesting that in some cases, "a chimpanzee could do a better job."
Why is this important?
This unpredictability complicates worldwide efforts to prepare for extreme weather. For example, six major storms hit the Philippines in just three weeks — a situation nearly twice as likely due to warming global temperatures, according to one study cited by Bloomberg.
Similarly, extreme weather has disrupted agriculture. For example, hurricane damage to Florida's orange crops is affecting local economies and food security.
If these trends continue, the gap between climate models and reality could widen, making it harder to protect vulnerable communities and infrastructure.
What's being done about it?
In response, researchers are exploring solutions like geoengineering, which would cool the Earth by reflecting sunlight away from the surface. However, this developing area isn't without risk and uncertainty about unintended effects. Jean-Francois Lamarque, a climate scientist with the nonprofit SilverLining, suggests that studying natural systems may provide safer, more reliable alternatives.
On the policy side, there's some concern over funding cuts to climate research. For instance, the Project 2025 roadmap proposes slashing funding for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration at a time when countries like China are ramping up climate research efforts.
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Move somewhere else 🌎 Both personal and collective action are necessary for a resilient future. Individuals can help by supporting organizations focused on environmental issues and raising awareness about the benefits of eco-friendly policies — and supporting policymakers who are ready to take legislative action.
Finally, simple steps, such as swapping out conventional light bulbs for the more energy-efficient LED variety, can help reduce planet-warming pollution that's causing the planet to overheat and supercharging extreme weather events.
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