Researchers make alarming prediction about the San Francisco Bay: 'Would become annual events'

According to a new study, flooding events considered rare in the San Francisco Bay area today are projected to increase in frequency, putting more people at risk. Scientists are calling for more research on compound flooding to help mitigate future floods.

What's happening?

According to the Global Water Forum, "Compound flooding occurs when different flood drivers occur at the same time or in close succession." 

Rising sea levels and higher river discharge influence flooding in the San Francisco Bay region. A new study focusing on various flood drivers contributing to compound flooding within the Bay reveals that what are now considered rare flooding events are expected to become more common in our warming world.  

"The present study shows that the situation can become even more severe," according to the study published recently in the science journal Nature. Even with a relatively low sea-level rise, the study projects that the previously rare events, which occur once every few hundred years, would become annual events. 

Why is the rising risk of flooding in the San Francisco region important?

Weather in the Bay Area impacts a lot of people. San Francisco is the fifth largest metropolitan area in the United States. 

"However, some low-lying areas of SF Bay experience coastal flooding and the SF Bay Area is at risk of worsening compound coastal flooding due to multiple forcing factors such as tides, waves, and river discharge (RD)," states the study.

The scientists who conducted the study say the compound flood risk could climb significantly because of a combination of sea-level rise and higher river discharge:

"As sea level rises due to climate change, increasingly frequent extreme sea-level events are projected to inundate low-lying areas around the Bay with potentially disastrous effects on public health, infrastructure, and ecosystems. In addition, warmer temperatures may increase the intensity of extreme rainfall and runoff, resulting in higher RD [river discharge] and changes to flood risk."

What's being done to address the increasing flood risk?

The study's scientific team includes researchers from Oregon State University, the University of California, Cornell University, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. They say their findings are critical for helping inform decision-makers about climate adaptation and coastal resilience planning in San Francisco Bay.

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A NOAA-led study describes a prototype forecast model that was first deployed 10 years ago and was designed in part to fill the flooding forecasting gaps. Another study published last summer focused on "Nature-based solutions as buffers against coastal compound flooding."

Anything we can do to cool down our overheating planet will help. There are some win-win options that can lower utility bills while at the same time curbing carbon pollution. Those options include switching to solar power, installing a heat pump, and using induction cooking.

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