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Grim new study predicts trouble for communities near coral reefs: 'It's possible that we are witnessing a step change'

This isn't just about losing fish.

This isn’t just about losing fish.

Photo Credit: iStock

It's no secret that the Great Barrier Reef has been struggling, but new research shows just how bad things are for the fish that call it home, especially around the inshore islands that are popular with visitors.

What's happening?

Scientists studying 100 reef sites near the Palm Islands, Magnetic Island, Whitsunday Islands, and Keppel Islands over 14 years have uncovered a massive decline in fish populations, according to a release from James Cook University. Depending on the location, fish numbers dropped by 33% to 72%, with the variety of species shrinking by as much as 75%.

These reefs are getting hit from all sides — cyclones, coral bleaching, floods, and the pressures of being so close to the coast. 

"It's possible that we are witnessing a step change in coral and reef fish community dynamics in the face of increasingly frequent disturbances," said Daniela Ceccarelli, an Australian Institute of Marine Science marine ecologist and the study's lead author.

For example, major floods in 2011 and 2013 caused fish populations in the Keppel Islands to drop to just 10% of their previous levels, leaving some areas covered in algae instead of coral. Cyclone Debbie in 2017 wiped out coral habitats in the Whitsunday Islands, making it nearly impossible for coral-dependent species to bounce back.

Even marine park zones, where fishing is banned, offer limited protection. 

"No-Take Marine Reserves are unlikely to mitigate the impacts of an increasingly chaotic climate for all fish species in the long term," said JCU coral reef ecologist Maya Srinivasan.

Why is preserving coral reefs important?

This isn't just about losing fish. Coral reefs are lifelines for local communities. They fuel tourism, support recreational fishing, and are critical for marine biodiversity. As fish populations collapse, people who depend on reefs for income and food security feel the impact.

Plus, this problem isn't going away. Human-driven warming makes natural disturbances such as cyclones and heat waves more intense and frequent, pushing reefs — and the species that rely on them — past their breaking points.

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"Without global action on reducing emissions, protected areas and fisheries management alone are not sufficient to safeguard coral reef fish," Ceccarelli said in the release.

What's being done about it?

The long-term monitoring program that uncovered these declines, led by JCU's Centre for Tropical Water and Aquatic Ecosystem Research and AIMS, is expanding its reach to track more reef sites. Projects such as Australia's Reef Trust and collaborations with the Great Barrier Reef Foundation are providing funding to support these critical efforts.

But research alone won't solve the problem. Protecting coral reefs means taking big steps, including reducing global carbon pollution and promoting sustainable tourism. On a personal level, choosing responsibly harvested seafood, cutting down on carbon-heavy activities, and supporting conservation policies can all make a difference.

This study is another reminder that we need bold action to fight rising global temperatures — not just for the environment but also for the people and economies that depend on healthy reefs. 

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