The latest measurement of Antarctic sea ice shocked scientists, though it's not certain whether this is a new normal.
What's happening?
The National Snow and Ice Data Center reported this year's Antarctic sea ice winter maximum was the second-lowest on record, per the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The area around Antarctica covered by at least 15% ice was 6.6 million square miles. Last year marked the only time when there was less ice coverage.
The average maximum extent from 1981 to 2010 was 598,000 square miles greater. And there was only 77,000 square miles more ice this year than there was in 2023. It continues a nearly decade-long trend, but these last two years have been outliers even then.
"Like 2023, the 2024 winter maximum was so far outside the range of observed variability that some scientists speculate that the Southern Ocean sea ice may have entered a wholly new state," the NOAA stated.
The extent of sea ice from 2013 to 2015 was mostly above average.
Why is this important?
Research scientist Ted Scambos told the NOAA this is the result of slow ice advance in fall and "rapid retreat" in spring and summer. While rising air temperatures are an obvious factor to point to, they can't fully explain the sheer scale of the change.
Scambos said the problem is most likely attributable to "warm near-surface ocean temperatures at the sea ice edge." These temperatures, from 55 degrees Fahrenheit to 65, are even more likely to be the cause of "the slow readvance in autumn and winter."
"It's bonkers," Scambos said of the back-to-back winter maximum lows. "It's like it's wandering off into new territory."
The yearly average ice extent around Antarctica peaked in 2014 after decades of increases. But by 2018, 35 years' worth of gains had disappeared. While Antarctic sea ice is volatile, and a 2022 model showed high-low swings as well as short-term increases and decreases, the last two years "are in a world of their own," according to the NOAA.
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National Snow and Ice Data Center sea ice expert Walt Meier said weather could reverse this pattern but added a warning.
"I think it is still too soon to say for sure that we're witnessing global warming coming to Antarctic sea ice," he said, "but if it were to be the case, this is what it would look like."
What's being done about the rising global temperature?
The loss of Antarctic sea ice coincides with a trend of the rapidly rising global temperature. Earth's 10 hottest surface temperatures on record have come in each of the last 10 years, a transformation driven by the burning of dirty sources of energy such as coal and gas, which devastates human health as well as wildlife and the environment.
To help the planet cool down, we can make changes from washing clothes in cold water to installing a heat pump. Cutting down on plastic is another key, while talking to friends and family can boost your impact and clear the path to solution-oriented action.
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