A new study suggests snow leopards could disappear from Nepal by 2050 due to climate change impacts. According to a South China Morning Post report, the mountain-dwelling big cats could be forced out of the country if action isn't taken to reduce rising global temperatures.
What's happening?
A recent study by Nepali and Australian researchers found that snow leopards could disappear from Nepal within the next three decades due to the warming of our planet. The researchers report that "snow leopards may disappear in Nepal by 2050" under a "high-emission climate change scenario."
The study found that with drastic climate shifts and a severe rise in global temperatures, snow leopards would likely move west toward India and Bangladesh for a more comfortable climate. The South China Morning Post reports that Nepal's annual temperature has increased by 0.056 degrees Celsius in the past two decades.
"Our modeling shows an alarming scenario, and the impact from climate change is turning out to be worse than predicted," Dibesh Karmacharya, executive director of the Center for Molecular Dynamics Nepal and the study's lead researcher, told the South China Morning Post.
According to Karmacharya, the researchers used genetic information and Geographic Information System modeling to predict the movements of snow leopards due to increased global temperatures. The study used an extreme warming scenario called RCP8.5 to model the movements, which some researchers consider a "no-policy" look at rising global temperatures. Other researchers, however, see this type of modeling as unrealistic and too drastic to be valuable, according to a Carbon Brief report.
The creators of RCP8.5 tell Carbon Brief that the climate model was "never meant to be a business-as-usual scenario, but as a high-end scenario" consistent with available literature when it was created in 2005.
"Clearly, RCP8.5 is a possible no-climate policy world," Detlef P. van Vuuren, one researcher behind RCP8.5, told Carbon Brief. "But it is surely not the only one, and … it is not the most likely."
Why is this research important?
Snow leopards are listed as a "vulnerable" species by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources. Snow leopards were listed as an "endangered" species until 2017.
There are 12 countries in which snow leopards live in the wild, including Nepal. Nepal's National Trust for Nature Conservation reports the global snow leopard population is estimated to be between 3,900 and 6,300. Nepal has an estimated 350 to 500 snow leopards, about 10% of the world's snow leopard population.
According to the IUCN, the number of snow leopards in the wild is decreasing due to habitat loss, poaching, and climate degradation. Unsustainable forms of hunting are also causing snow leopards to lose their main prey, ungulates — large mammals with hooves, like the Siberian ibex or argali sheep.
What's being done to protect Nepal's snow leopards?
The study's researchers call for climate action and "strategic conservation planning" to protect snow leopards — and the planet.
There are currently numerous efforts in Nepal to protect and conserve snow leopard populations. One such organization is the Snow Leopard Conservancy, which supports local-led conservation initiatives to aid snow leopards. The World Wildlife Fund of Nepal also works to help support snow leopard species by partnering with Nepali government officials to prosecute wildlife crimes, conserve snow leopard habitats, and improve species monitoring.
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