For centuries, humanity's emission of heat-trapping air pollution has been accelerating year upon year. However, two major agencies are reporting that 2024 could be the tipping point when air pollution starts to decline, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported.
Heat-trapping air pollution, including carbon dioxide and methane, acts like a blanket around the Earth, trapping warmth and causing the whole planet to overheat. It comes from many sources, but the vast majority of human-caused air pollution in this category comes from our use of oil, coal, and gas for transportation and energy, per the United Nations. This accounts for more than 75% of our air pollution.
For years, scientists have warned that we're approaching a crucial threshold — that if the air keeps getting more polluted and the world keeps getting hotter, there could be irreversible consequences for the planet. In particular, the ABC reported that if we don't start decreasing our yearly pollution by 2025, we will be past the point of no return.
That's why the new analysis from independent research firm BloombergNEF and the international Climate Analytics institute is such great news. According to both organizations, it looks likely that 2024 will mark a turning point, with less emissions than 2023, the ABC relayed. The growth of solar power and electric vehicle sales in China is a major contributing factor.
It's early to celebrate; the count won't be final until the end of the year. However, the numbers look good, leading many to breathe a sigh of relief.
"Although it's hard to say exactly when emissions have peaked, the data so far in 2024 seems that that was the right call," BloombergNEF head of Australian research Leonard Quong said, per the ABC.
Neil Grant, senior climate and energy analyst from Climate Analytics, cautiously agreed with the assessment. "Our analysis from last year found that if wind and solar continue to accelerate at the pace that they have been, consistent with historical trends, then there's a 70% chance that emissions would fall in 2024," he said, per the ABC.
However, according to Grant, several factors, including AI and heatwaves, have increased the demand for power this year. "This reduces the likelihood of emissions peaking in 2024. But it's still possible that they could fall, and if not this year, then next," he added. "Whether emissions fall or rise this year, we're really approaching a sort of inflection point at the moment."
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