Traditional methods of weather prediction used by an Indigenous community in the South Pacific Ocean are becoming less reliable as the repercussions of rising global temperatures disrupt biological processes and events.
What's happening?
According to Mongabay, the ni-Vanuatu people of the island nation of Vanuatu have long depended on the behaviors of flora and fauna to forecast impending floods, droughts, and cyclones.
They can deduce the severity of an incoming cyclone if yellow oriental paper wasps nest at a height lower than usual. The ni-Vanuatu also know that cyclones are nearby when Pacific emerald doves lay their eggs on the ground and when flying foxes glide closer to the ground or cease flying altogether.
Furthermore, traditional knowledge holders also expect storms during the wet season when breadfruit, mango, and papaya trees begin to fruit and flower.
All these predictive measures are rooted in science and logic. High winds can endanger birds and wasps, while temperatures and humidity peak before the tropical wet season, triggering higher crop yields for fruit trees.
The Van-KIRAP project, led by the Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme and Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department, worked with traditional knowledge holders to preserve this knowledge in a national guidebook.
However, changing weather patterns dictated by an overheating planet are affecting the accuracy of these meteorological indicators, Van-KIRAP project manager Sunny Seuseu told Mongabay.
Increased temperatures and precipitation are impacting the breeding season for doves and the survival of wasps and flying foxes.
"The fruiting seasons of the mango tree have shifted, which has also affected the trees as an indicator because they tend to fruit off-season," VMGD principal scientific officer Glenda Pakoa added.
Why is the accuracy of traditional weather indicators important?
Like many island and coastal communities, Vanuatu is prone to extreme weather events. Its population is spread across the archipelago, and some do not have access to phones or the internet, instead relying on traditional weather indicators to prepare for storms.
Since Vanuatu's standard tactics are no longer reliable, the nation's safety and security are at risk. According to its mission to the United Nations, "climate change remains … the most significant single threat to sustainable development"; the devastation caused by Cyclone Pam in 2015 destroyed 96% of its crops and affected 60% of its people.
What's being done about traditional weather indicators?
Changing weather patterns have necessitated the modernization of a process that was once passed from generation to generation through oral communication.
Researchers developed the Climate Watch mobile app alongside Vanuatu's national booklet, calling on the community to document traditional weather indicator species. The booklet contains 43 species, while the app has 20.
This information allows VMGD to analyze and verify how the planet's overheating has affected the behavior of indicator plants and animals.
"We will need years of data before we verify the indicators and analyze the shifts occurring by climate change. However, the process can help people be more prepared and resilient to extreme weather," VMGD project manager Moirah Matou told Mongabay.
Collaborations between Indigenous people and experts have paid dividends worldwide, as similar efforts have resulted in the revitalization of buffalo habitats in the United States and the restoration of the Amazon rainforest in Brazil.
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