The Amazon rainforest was hit with a historic drought in 2023, raising concerns that the complex ecosystem was on the verge of collapse. Scientists are now warning that there may be less time to turn things around than initially believed.
What's happening?
New research published in the journal Nature found that 10% of the Amazon was highly vulnerable to transitioning into a degraded state or grasslands. Meanwhile, as much as 47% of the forest was at "moderate" risk (or "transition potential"), including remote parts of the jungle with less human interference.
Unlike other major studies, which mostly looked at deforestation, researchers zeroed in on the "cumulative effects of a range of threats" while poring through the data, as reported by the New York Times. Some of the factors taken into account were legal protections, forest cover, rainfall patterns, and the threat of extreme weather events.
"This study adds it all up to show how this tipping point is closer than other studies estimated," Brazilian Earth systems scientist Carlos Nobre, an author of the study, told the outlet.
Why is this important?
It is difficult to map exactly what a collapse of the Amazon would mean, as some intersecting factors are still being investigated, but it would certainly be heavily disruptive to not only the world but also the millions of people who live there.
The Times wrote that as much as 20 years' worth of plant-warming carbon pollution could be released by a partial or total collapse.
A loss of the trees could also negatively impact global temperatures and rainfall patterns in ways that are unclear. According to the World Wildlife Fund, the forest sends roughly 22 billion tons of water into the atmosphere every day.
What can be done to help?
The study concluded that at least 5% of the Amazon should be restored, and large-scale deforestation should be eliminated. Limiting the warming of our planet to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit above preindustrial levels is also key.
Over the summer, as reported by CNBC, Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, Colombia, Peru, Guyana, Venezuela, and Suriname signed a pact to support sustainable development and end illegal deforestation in the Amazon.
Some other nations outside of South America, including the United States, have also invested in Amazon conservation efforts.
However, the work is ongoing.
Making your voice heard in elections, holding corporations accountable by supporting eco-friendly brands, and choosing less polluting modes of transportation when possible are several ways to contribute to the protection of the forest directly or indirectly.
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